….absolutely nothing.  Unless you are invested in defensive companies, government bonds and other “risk-off” assets.  That is until conflict starts, at which point history teaches us that (strangely) markets rally dramatically as a result.

The war of words between Kim Jong Un & Donald Trump has been a major focus for markets over the past few months, with investors hoping that it doesn’t escalate into a fully-fledged war of nuclear proportions.  This month we consider the possible implications for the markets if this tension continues to escalate.  We use data from previous wars spanning back to WWI to examine the possible consequences if this verbal war becomes a real conflict.  Thankfully we have no benchmark for an exchange of nuclear missiles.  We sincerely hope it stays that way.

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The Vintage Magazine is delighted to congratulate Devonshire Wealth Management and their CEO, Martin Cawley, for being placed in the top 13 IFAs in Uk – this is a well deserved recognition of their professional and personal attention to their clients.  Here is the press release by AdvisoryHQ :-

Top 13 Best Financial Advisers in the UK 

2017 Ranking 

Top UK IFAs & Independent Investment Firms

2017 RANKING & REVIEWS
TOP RANKING UK WEALTH ADVISORS

Finding the Top Independent Financial Adviser (IFAs) in London and Select UK Cities

Identifying an independent financial adviser in the UK, someone who will work with you to determine your financial planning and wealth management needs, is the first step to achieving financial peace of mind.

Be that as it may, many Brits are unaware of the difference a UK independent financial adviser (IFA) can have on their financial lives.

Just as a family physician plays a key role in your physical wellbeing, UK IFAs can help Britons maintain their financial health. Since one would take the time and effort to search for a physician of their choice, you should also conduct appropriate diligence when identifying independent financial advisers in London or elsewhere in the UK.

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Mountstone Partners create and manage bespoke investment portfolios for wealthy families, charities and trusts.  CEO James Keen publishes a monthly investment update for their clients.  Here is James Keen’s March Newsletter – please contact him if you have any queries about the markets or indeed your portfolio.

The market thinks there is a 90% chance that the Federal reserve will increase interest rates after they conclude today’s meeting (14th March) and if they pull the trigger this will be the third rise since US rates bottomed on December 16^th 2008.  With the economy in rude health, we believe that this could finally herald the turning of the interest rate cycle in the US.

Whilst we won’t be back at the giddy heights of 6% bank rates in the US any time soon, a shift up to 2-3% represents a major risk to investors in ‘low risk’ government/corporate bonds.  We believe that investors should be fearful of such a move and that acting now to reduce exposure to interest-rate sensitive bonds is sensible.

We’ve summarised our thoughts in this short piece and as always do let me know if you have any comments or questions.

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Mountstone Partners create and manage bespoke investment portfolios for wealthy families, charities and trusts.  CEO James Keen publishes a monthly investment update for their clients.

Here is James Keen’s summary of Philip Hammond’s spring budget, highlighting those parts that are most likely to be relevant to the over 50s – please contact him if you have any queries about the markets or indeed your portfolio.

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Mountstone Partners create and manage bespoke investment portfolios for wealthy families, charities and trusts.  CEO James Keen publishes a monthly investment update for their clients.

Here he summarises the key points from the Chancellor’s budget that he thinks will specifically have an impact on you as an investor, ranging from changes in pension legislation to ISAs to savings.  There’s a section covering fags, booze and gambling tax and apologies if all/any of these aren’t your thing.  He promises that he is not casting personal aspersions by including them!

Highlights of the budget include a major reduction in capital gains tax for all, which is great news.  We also saw the ISA regime for under 40s improved significantly.  Also there was no change to personal pension legislation, as promised.

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Devonshire Wealth Management is a boutique London-based wealth and asset management firm. They offer bespoke advice to clients with whom they nurture and value long-standing relationships. Central to Devonshire Wealth Management’s approach is taking time to understand what clients want out of life and how to meet their desired financial goals. They use state of the art technology to help guide people through their financial journey.

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Mountstone Partners create and manage bespoke investment portfolios for wealthy families, charities and trusts.  CEO James Keen publishes a monthly investment update for their clients.  Here is James Keen’s February Newsletter – please contact him if you have any queries about the markets or indeed the portfolio.

It has been the worst start to a year for equity markets since 2008.  All major indices have fallen on fears of continuing slowdown in China, potential default concerns surrounding the European banks, political risk emanating from a potential Brexit and a weak corporate earnings season.  Over 1 year the Hang Seng has fallen 22.6%, The FTSE 100 by 15.2% and the S&P 500 by 10%.

With this backdrop it is understandable to worry about the future prospects for markets in 2016, however in the short-term investors will often overreact in such conditions.  We believe that this is the case now, epitomised by Japanese equities trading on their lowest price to earnings ratios ever at the same time as Japan having its best macroeconomic conditions for decades.

However, in this edition of our regular market overview we have focused on an asset class that is often considered uncorrelated with equities – high yield bonds. These debt instruments are fixed interest investments and therefore often mistakenly seen as a hedge/protection against falling equities.  We attempt to dispel that myth and argue that high yield bonds should be considered as a “risk-on” asset just as equities are.  They can (and have) delivered excellent returns in the right economic conditions but over the past 12 months, high yield has had a torrid time, just like equities. Those investors who own large exposure in this asset class should therefore be very aware of what they own.

Will high yield bonds recover if equities start to perform well again?  We consider the various factors influencing demand and prices of these investments and determine whether or not they now look good value after a prolonged period of poor performance.

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Mountstone Partners create and manage bespoke investment portfolios for wealthy families, charities and trusts.  CEO James Keen publishes a monthly investment update for their clients.  Here is James Keen’s December Newsletter – please contact him if you have any queries about the markets or indeed the portfolio.

It was only in August that the markets tumbled after China announced a devaluation of its currency, the yuan, against the US dollar. Then last week the IMF announced that the yuan would be included in its basket of so called ‘reserve’ currencies, thereby accepting the Chinese currency into an exclusive club of five alongside the euro, dollar, sterling and yen. So what can we expect from the big five global currencies? In our attached overview we look back over the last 18 months and more importantly consider the outlook for sterling in 2016 against the euro, dollar, yuan and yen.

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Mountstone Partners create and manage bespoke investment portfolios for wealthy families, charities and trusts.  CEO James Keen publishes a monthly investment update for their clients.  Here is James Keen’s November Newsletter – please contact him if you have any queries about the markets or indeed the portfolio.

The healthcare sector has been booming over the last few years because of the success of new drugs being brought to the market, greater pricing power for drugs companies and a significant shift in demographics towards the elderly.  In other words demand and supply have increased at the same time that prices have been pushed higher.

However at least one of those factors may be about to come under pressure – prices.  Hillary Clinton promised to curb aggressive price hikes by pharmaceutical companies if elected president, after some aggressive price raising tactics from the likes of Turin Pharmaceuticals hit the headlines and outraged consumers.  The sector has plummeted recently as a result.

This month we look back at the performance of the healthcare sector and consider its future.   We assess the key reasons for the success story thus far and examine the significance of Mrs Clinton’s promise to curb price increases.  Finally we look at the future prospects for what has been a very profitable sector for us over the past three years.

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Mountstone create and manage bespoke investment portfolios for wealthy families, charities and trusts.  CEO James Keen publishes a monthly investment update for their clients.

Mountstone Partners was three years old on the 3^rd September 2015 – happy birthday to us.  However we will not be basking in the glory of our continued existence, not least because this has been the worst quarter for equity markets since our inception.

You may recall how excited we were when the FTSE 100 first closed above the 7,000 mark back on the 9^th April 2015.  So excited in fact that I took a picture of the day’s closing value on my phone to capture and preserve the moment.  However since then the FTSE 100 has plunged again back down through 6,000, reaching 5,898 on 25^th August before re-bounding somewhat in October.

So what have been the major drivers of the recent decline in equities?  In a word “China”.  A surprise devaluation of the Renminbi on the 10^th August in order to stave off the effects of a flailing economy took the markets by surprise and led to a plunge in equities across the globe.  The impact was not so much related to the magnitude of the move (2-3%) but more the intention that it showed and the political significance.  Entering a round of competitive devaluations with the US (currency wars, by another name) is not a decision to be taken lightly and the world judged this to be a panic move from a stuttering engine of world production.

This month we look back upon world events over the last extraordinary three years of our existence and consider what the future holds for equity and fixed interest investors over the years ahead.

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